Blackjack and baccarat have something important in common. The house edge for both games changes according to the cards that are played from the shoe. The house edge being advertised is based on the shoes initial composition. This value does not remain fixed as the game progresses.
The house edge for blackjack favours the player for roughly thirty percent of the hands. The advance player will use card counting as a strategy. The baccarat player has a more difficult time but can still gain an edge.
Baccarat players generally study the scoreboards. They believe the historical results assist them in predicting the results from their hand. Any betting system using illusory patterns is worthless. These patterns do not exist. No information can be gained from the results of a hand in the past.
This does not mean optimal betting systems do not exist. The lowest house edge on any hand is found on one of three wagers. The Tie, Banker or Player. If the player knew which one had the lowest house edge, they would always make the best bet.
The house edges are advertised for the first hand of the shoe and the player makes a Banker bet. As the cards are depleted, the best the player can do is pick the wager containing the lowest house edge. This is called optimal wagering and is used by the best baccarat players in the world.
Optimal wagering may seem like a fantasy at first because the player must know which wager has the lowest house edge for every round. There is an Android smartphone app that enables the players to compute the house edge.
The player enters the cards as they are dealt. Prior to each round, they press the compute button. The screen will reveal the exact returns for every bet. This app was created using standard methods. This is the only way to implement optimal wagering successfully.
Some casinos allow the high rollers to play using their phones. This player can use customized software or the app to get the edge pertaining to each wager. Advanced technology has made optimal wagering a possibility. Simulations have been performed and the assumptions are defined below.
The card cut is at fourteen cards with the usual cut card rules and burns card. The Tie bet is paying at nine to one. The player wagers on the lowest edge for every hand. The wager of the player is fixed at one unit. The results for this simulation show:
For a house advantage of 0.878%, 20.77 percent of the hands show Player as the best wager, 75.51 percent of the hands show the Banker as the best wager and 3.72 percent of the hands show Tie as the best wager. The average player loss is one in 2.15 hands.
The 0.878 percent advantage is not enough to beat the house. The most common international rebates are 0.75 to 1.25 percent. Optimal wagering is received by the player with a 1.90 percent rolling chip rebate and flat betting. When technology is added, the player does even better.
A players results improve with a smaller house edge when the player uses the bet spread. This can be seen in the scenario below.
The cut card is fourteen cards with the usual cut card rules and burn card. The pay for the Tie bet is nine to one. The player’s wager is on the lowest house edge for every hand. The wager of the player for the lowest house edge is one unit when the house edge is 0.90 percent or higher.
When the house edge is below 0.90 percent, the player wagers ten units. There is no rolling chip program in effect. The simulation assumption results are:
The wager of the player is approximately 2.70 units for each hand. The house advantage is 0.38 percent. The edge of 0.38 percent can be overcome when a modest rolling chip rebate is in effect.
The opinion is in order for baccarat game protection to be effective, it must be assumed every player calling in is using computer technology. An audit will reveal if optimal wagering is being used by the player. It is becoming easier to determine if the house has the edge regarding rolling chip incentives.